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Update to 1st of January 2013 (11:00 AM)

The earthquake forecasting system is migrating to the Centro di Pericolosità Sismica (CPS) of INGV.

This webpage will no longer be active.

We report two probability maps (Map A and Map B) for the occurrence of next large events with M 5.5+ in Italy (target events) for the next 10 years. The two maps are calculated by using the same statistical procedure applied to a seismotectonic zonation (MAP A) and to a regular grid (MAP B). The probability maps are updated every 1st of January and after the occurrence of a new target event. For more details on the method see Faenza et al. 2003 and Cinti et al. 2004.

MAP A

The statistical procedure is applied to a seismotectonic zonation
Zones are supposed to be homogeneous with respect to the kinematics and orientation of the stress field. 
The map reports the probability of occurrence of at least one event with M 5.5+ for the next 10 years in each zone.
Table with the probability value (P) of the zones with P > 0 of Map A: tab_map_A_01_01_2013.txt
Here, you can download Map A:
map_A_01_01_2013.ps

MAP B

The statistical procedure is applied to a regular spatial grid. 
The map reports the probability of occurrence of at least one event with M 5.5+ for the next 10 years per unit of surface (Km2). 
Table with the probability values of the nodes of Map B:
tab_map_B_01_01_2013.txt 
Here, you can download Map B:
map_B_01_01_2013.ps

 

01_01_2013.png 

REMARKS ABOUT FUTURE TARGET EVENTS

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

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